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Research, Report & Profiling Services
by IPOdesktop.com
NACEL Energy Corp (NCEN.OB)
Stock symbol: NCEN.OB…….….…..….…….……….………..………..Average vol (3 mo) 84,610 |
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Stock price 04/08/09: $1.00……….Common shares 12/31/08: 21.8mm (issued and outstanding) |
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52 week Range: $0.36 to $5.30 ……………..………………Equity market capitalization: $23.5mm |
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Recent News…..Stock Price…..Chart…..SEC Filings |
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BUSINESS |
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· One of the only publicly-traded wind energy companies & is actively developing 80-megawatts of new wind power generating capacity in Texas Panhandle–enough energy to supply 25,000 homes. Other projects in the pipeline in KS, IL, AZ and internationally. |
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· Represents a unique opportunity for investors interested in exposure to America's fastest growing energy business – wind |
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· Focused in the US on 10-30 megawatts (MW) utility scale project size power market niche – serves as many as 9000 average homes (300 per MW of wind power) |
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WIND ENERGY IS PRIME TIME |
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· 20% Wind Energy in US by 2030 (US Department of Energy--DOE): read more |
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· 33 States have a renewable energy policy that requires a certain percentage of energy be utilized from renewable sources in their States read more |
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· E.P.A. Expected to Regulate Carbon Dioxide - if so will have a very positive impact on the wind farm business read more |
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TEXAS PANHANDLE is the SAUDI ARABIA OF WIND POWER |
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NCEN has four projects in the Texas Panhandle |
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· 'Texas, the Saudi Arabia of wind power?' read more |
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· "Since we built the first utility-scale wind farm in Texas nearly 14 years ago, AEP has supported the development of renewable generation to help diversify the U.S. electricity generation mix and reduce greenhouse gas emissions |
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· "We have been able to effectively execute our aggressive plan to add 1,000 MW of wind energy to serve our customers in just a few years due to the rapid growth in U.S. wind projects." |
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· Statement of American Electric Power Co (read more |
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· Texas Panhandle projects have good access to electricity transmission grids. |
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‘SAUDI ARABIA’ of wind is TEXAS PANHANDLE |
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Confirmed by the Texas State Energy Conservation Office |
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· According to the Texas State Energy Conservation Office (SECO), the Panhandle contains the State's "greatest expanse of high quality winds." |
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· SECO's research indicates that while Class 4 wind locations such as NACEL Energy’s Swisher, Blue Creek and Channing Flats comprise just 4.38% of the land area of Texas, these lands, in their aggregate, could supply 100% of the State's (1995) electric power consumption. |
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· Source: SECO website, "The Energy Report 2008" Chapter 11 (Wind Energy), Exhibit 11-9) |
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Confirmed by the Fort Worth (TX) Star-Telegram |
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· "One thing we’ve got a lot of in Texas is wind. In 2007, the U.S. wind industry grew by 45 percent, and over half of that growth came from Texas." |
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· "We produce more wind power than any other state, and second place is not even close." |
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· "Texas accounts for almost one-third of the nation’s total installed wind capacity. That’s the equivalent of the electricity needed to power more than 1 million Texas homes." read more |
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TEXAS CLASS 4 WIND PRODUCES LOW-COST ELECTRICITY – Competitive with fossil-fuels like natural gas |
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· 3.6 cents per kilowatt-hour wind power production cost by 2012 according to the US DOE (Dept of Energy) read more |
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· Which is 30% of the average retail cost of electricity, according to the US DOE read more |
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· In Texas the average rate was 9.16 cents per kilowatt hour in 2008 read more |
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CLASS 4 WIND & NCEN |
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· According to the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) "In general, annual average wind speeds of 5 meters per second (11 miles per hour) are required for grid-connected applications, applies to Class 3 & Class 4 wind sites |
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· Class 4 is better read more |
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· All of NCEN’s Texas wind projects are Class 4 |
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RECENT NCEN DEVELOPMENTS |
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· 10 MW Hedley Pointe, TX Wind Farm – NCEN’s Fourth Texas Power Project, Feb 2 read more |
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· 20MW Swisher County Wind Farm – NCEN’s Third Texas Power Project, Jan 21 read more
· Updates Channing Flats, TX Wind Farm, Jan 7 read more |
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· Updates Blue Creek TX Wind Farm, Nov 7 read more |
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NCEN TEXAS PROJECTS IN DEPTH |
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· Hedley Point, TX |
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. Project size at build-out: 10 MW, Class 4 wind resource
. Donley County, TX, 636 acres, Semi Arid Steppe, 2621 Feet Above Sea Level, |
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. Strategically located to provide potential interconnection optionality with two electric system operators; SPP and ERCOT. SPP provides power to Kansas, and portions of Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Louisiana. ERCOT provides power to 21 million customers covering 75% of Texas. |
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· Swisher County, TX |
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. Project size at build-out: 20 MW (2X10 MW), Class 4 wind resource
. Swisher County, TX, 1573 acres, Semi-Arid Steppe, 3484 feet Above Sea Level |
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. Project commissioning (completion) at Swisher expected in 2010. |
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· Channing Flats, TX |
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. Project size at build-out: 20 MW (2X10 MW), Class 4 wind resource |
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. Moore County, TX, 1413 acres, Semi-Arid Steppe, 3661 Feet Above Sea Level |
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. Commissioning (completion) at Channing Flats expected 2010. |
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· Blue Creek, TX |
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. Project size at build-out: 30 MW (3X10 MW), Class 4 wind resource |
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. Moore County, TX, 2073 acres, Semi-Arid Steppe, 3661 Feet Above Sea Level |
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. Project completion at Blue Creek expected 2010. |
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· FUTURE project pipeline: NCEN has wind measurement data collected from anemometers (measures wind force & velocity) at various locations over a period of years in the States of Texas, Kansas, Wyoming, Colorado and New Mexico |
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NCEN CORPORATE OBJECTIVE |
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· 1000 megawatts (MW) of wind power under development by 2010 fiscal year; domestic projects plus international in Latin American/Caribbean region (Dominican Republic). |
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· Dominican Republic project could bring clean, renewable, wind energy to Caribbean region which relies predominantly on fossil-fuels. |
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NCEN’S COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES |
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· The advantage of wind power generation vs. conventional oil and gas - no exploration risk - is no issue of drilling a dry hole – no spending tens of millions of dollars on exploration. |
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· NCEN is focused on the 10-30 megawatt utility class turbine niche, big power companies are focused on larger wind energy projects |
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ACCORDING THE US U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY (DOE) |
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http://www.energy.gov/news/5091.htm |
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. Wind power has consistently been priced at, or below, the average price of conventional electricity (coal, nuclear, natural gas, etc. ). |
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. The U.S. is the fastest growing wind market worldwide. There remains substantial potential for the expansion of wind power to achieve approximately 20 percent of the nation’s generating mix. |
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. Texas, Washington, and California lead the U.S. in annual capacity growth. |
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. Wind power is competitive and has provided good value in wholesale power markets. |
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. The cost of turbines has risen since 2002. Higher costs have reversed the decline in total wind project costs and driven up the cost of generating wind power. Turbine cost increases have been driven by rises in input material and energy prices, and some shortages in certain turbine components. |
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. Wind project performance, has increased sharply over the last several years. This has been driven in part by improved project siting, and technological advancements. |
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. The wind market is in a period of transition. Electric utilities have shown increased interest in wind project ownership, and merchant wind power plants and sales to power marketers have become more common. |
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Address : 600 17th Street Suite 2800S, Denver, CO, 80202
Telephone: 720-204-1150
CEO: Brian M. Lavery
Web Site: http://www.nacelenergy.com/
State of incorporation or organization: Wyoming
Transfer Agent: Island Stock Transfer
Investor contact: Murray Fleming, 1-888-242-5848, info@nacelenergy.com |
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MARKET OPPORTUNITY |
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· Installed US wind power capacity surged 45% in 2007 |
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http://www.awea.org/newsroom/releases/AWEA_Market_Release_Q4_011708.html |
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· WIND vs. SOLAR? |
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. The entire solar industry generated only 314 MW of new power capacity in 2007
. The wind energy industry installed 5244 MW of capacity in 2007 - or nearly 20 times solar’s number
according to AWEA, the American Wind Energy Association
United States wind energy market |
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. The U.S. wind energy industry has experienced strong growth over last two years. U.S. accounted for 2454 MW or 16.1% of the aggregate new capacity installations in the world in 2006. |
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. This made wind based energy generation the second largest source of new power generation in the U.S. for the second row in a row, after natural gas. |
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. The new installations boosted the country’s wind power generating capacity by 27% with cumulative capacity exceeding the 10-gigawatt mark, to 11,603 MW as of December 31, 2006. GWEC estimates U.S. wind energy facilities to produce an estimated 31 billion kWh or more in 2007 – about 0.7% of the country’s electricity generation. |
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FUTURE WIND POWER DEMAND & SUPPLY |
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Going forward, global installed capacity is expected to have increased by approx. 20,000MW in 2007 |
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. Emerging Energy Research expects wind energy to account for approximately 3% of global electricity generation by 2015 from 1.2% currently, with average growth rates for cumulative installations through to 2010 and 2015 of 34.2% and 15.2% per annum respectively. |
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. Similarly, BTM Consult, a leading independent consultancy specializing in renewable energy, forecasts that the wind energy sector will grow at an average rate of 18% annually until 2010 |
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. They forecast that a total of 148,794MW of wind energy capacity will be installed by the end of 2010, an increase of 151% from the 59,264 MW of installed capacity at the end of 2005. |
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REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT – NEW OBAMA STIMULUS A DRIVING FORCE FOR WIND ENERGY |
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. The growth in the U.S. market has been largely driven by the extension of the federally sponsored, Production Tax Credit ("PTC") system to December 2008, renewed in the 2009 stimulus bill. |
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. The PTC program offers an incentive of $0.19 per MWh (CPI adjusted) for electricity generated from renewable sources during the first ten years of operation of the project. |
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FUTURE ACQUISITION? |
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Many other emerging wind farm companies like NACEL Energy have been acquired; |
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. This accelerated growth phase which occurs with operational scale can be demonstrated by examining the largely similar outcomes for the first wave of American wind energy developers established in the last decade, including Zilkha Wind, Noble Environmental Power and Sea West Wind; each of which was acquired by a major investment bank or a large utility. In each instance, the acquisition enabled the wind energy developer to access a scale of capital to fund its planned wind power development and even to accelerate it. |
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Acquirer…………………Target |
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JP Morgan Capital………Noble Environmental Power |
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Goldman Sachs …………Zilkha Wind |
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Enel SpA…………………Tradewind Energy |
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Iberdrola…………………Community Wind Energy & PPM Energy |
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American Energy Srvcs…..SeaWest Wind |
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POTENTIAL VALUATION & MARKET CAPITALIZATION |
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Valuation Compare & Contrast |
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NCEN is unique in the sense that we could find only three roughly comparable public companies, and none of them are focused exclusively on Class 4, utility-scale, wind projects like NACEL.
. NCEN’s anticipated cash burn rate for the quarter ending March 31, 2009 is only $200,000, according to the company’s 10Q for the December, 2008 quarter. |
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. NCEN ($23.5mm market cap) is on track for 80 megawatts in the Texas Panhandle plus pipeline of other projects, including an international strategy. |
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· COMPARABLE? Renewable Energy Holdings Plc REH.L. $22mm market cap. 40 megawatts of wind generating properties in Germany. View portfolio
/i/s/REH.L |
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· COMPARABLE? Western Wind Energy Corp. WNDEF. $18mm market cap. Projects do not uniformly appear to be in Class 4 wind pockets, such as NCEN’s projects in the Texas panhandle
/i/s/WNDEF.PK |
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NACEL potential valuation = $3.90 per share at full build-out of projects and utilization of Obama Stimulus |
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NACEL MANAGEMEN |
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President and Chief Executive Officer – Brian M. Lavery |
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20 years of industrial estimating, cost-accounting and scheduling experience gained with Fluor Corporation, Veco Construction Ltd. and Walther Bau AG. Mr. Lavery has significant large-scale conventional and renewable energy project management experience including the construction of a 215 MW co-generation plant; the construction of 3.8 MW "run of river" hydro-electric project and a 2730 MW hydro-electric generating station turbine retro-fit. In 1984, Mr. Lavery earned his card in the International Association of Machinists (IAMAW) and his Master’s degree in Business Administration (MBA) in 1998. Mr. Lavery is a co-founder of NACEL Energy. |
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Power Markets and Transmission – Dr. Nedal Deeb |
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Since 1989 Dr. Deeb has advised major developers and utilities including FPL Energy, Duke Energy, AEP, Calpine, Sempra, Reliant Energy and Southern Energy as well as Noble Environmental Power, one of the nation’s largest wind power generation companies. Dr. Deeb has recently advised on origination and acquisition of thousands of MWs in wind energy projects across the US markets. Dr. Deeb is an expert in power market strategies and transmission network interconnection. Dr. Deeb earned his Master’s degree and Ph.D. in Electrical Engineering from the Illinois Institute of Technology at Chicago and his Bachelor’s degree in Electrical Engineering from Kuwait University. Dr. Deeb is a partner in Renergix Wind LLC, NACEL Energy’s principal wind power project joint-development partner. |
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Development and Acquisition – Dr. Paul Turner |
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From 2001 through 2006, Dr. Paul Turner was Managing Director of People’s Energy Resource Corporation (PERC), an affiliate of Peoples Gas of Chicago, IL. While at PERC, Dr. Turner was responsible for energy generation asset acquisition and development. Prior to his career with PERC, Dr. Turner served as an Associate Professor at New Mexico State University and was an advisor to the New Mexico Attorney General concerning the deregulation of electrical markets. Dr. Turner earned his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Wyoming in 1997 and his Masters degree in Electrical Engineering from New Mexico State University in 1991. Dr. Turner is a partner in Renergix Wind LLC, NACEL Energy’s principal wind power project joint-development partner. |
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Permitting & Construction – John Koziol |
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In 1991, John Koziol founded Kodiak Builders in Colorado. The Company has grown and expanded from its initial focus on multi-family and mixed-use construction to include a top-level project management team focusing on commercial and industrial projects. Mr. Koziol is responsible for NACEL Energy’s wind project field operations and also manages the Company’s wind resource analysis software and data logging. Mr. Koziol works with Renergix Wind LLC, NACEL Energy’s principal wind power project joint-development partner. |
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Shareholder Services – Murray S. Fleming |
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Murray S. Fleming manages all shareholder and media inquiries for NACEL Energy. Mr. Fleming earned a Bachelor’s degree in Economics & Environmental Studies in 1986. Mr. Fleming is a co-founder of NACEL Energy. |
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IPOdesktop (ID) SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Statements contained in this document, including those pertaining to estimates and related plans, potential mergers and acquisitions, estimates, growth, establishing new markets, expansion into new markets and related plans other than statements of historical fact, are forward-looking statements subject to a number of uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from statements made. ID provides no assurance as to the subject company's plans or ability to effect any planned and/or proposed actions. ID has no first-hand knowledge of management and therefore cannot comment on its capabilities, intent, resources, nor experience and makes no attempt to do so. Statistical information, dollar amounts, and market size data was provided by the subject company or its agent and related sources believed by ID to be reliable, but ID provides no assurance, and none is given, as to the accuracy and completeness of this information. |
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DISCLAIMER: The information, opinions and analysis contained herein are based on sources believed to be reliable but no representation, expressed or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This report is a paid advertisement and is for information purposes only and should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. ID has been compensated up eighty five hundred dollars from a third party for preparation and posting of this report and other advertising services. This constitutes a conflict of interest as to ID’s ability to remain objective in its communication regarding the subject company. Analysts, principals, associates and employees of ID do not own or trade equities under coverage. For detailed disclosure as required by Rule 17b of the Securities Act of 1933/1934 contact IPOdesktop, 11693 San Vicente Blvd., #350, Los Angeles, CA 90049. ID is not an investment advisor and this report is not investment advice. This information is neither a solicitation to buy nor an offer to sell securities but is a paid advertisement. Information contained herein contains forward-looking statements and is subject to significant risks and uncertainties, which will affect the results. The opinions contained herein reflect our current judgment and are subject to change without notice. We encourage our readers to invest carefully and read the investor information available at the web sites of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) at http://www.sec.gov and the National Association of Securities Dealers (NASD) at http://www.nasd.com. The NASD has published information on how to invest carefully at its web site. Readers can review all public filings by companies at the SEC's EDGAR page. |