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Research, Report & Profiling Services
by IPOdesktop.com
GREEN STAR ALTERNATIVE ENERGY (GSAE.PK)
Stock symbol: GSAE.PK…………..….…….…..….….……….………..………..Float: 16.25mm |
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Stock price 9/5/08: $2.09……………….Common shares Post Acquisition 9/5/08: 56mm (est) |
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Equity market capitalization: $117mm |
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Recent News…..Stock Price…..SEC Filings |
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HIGHLIGHTS |
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GSAE is acquiring Notos d.o.o. to become the Republic of Serbia’s first wind power developer. Notos was invited by the Slovenian Ministry of Energy to represent Serbia’s alternative energy sector at the Bled Strategic Forum on "Energy and Climate Change: Si.nergy for the Future" held in Slovenia on August 31st and September 1st. |
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At this key international summit, the Green Star and Notos team participated in strategic discussions with high level government representatives, EU officials, private sector leaders, energy industry experts on the challenges of energy security and climate change. |
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Wind Energy |
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According to GSAE, "The Notos Belo Blato Wind Energy Project will be a milestone for the Republic of Serbia. It will be the first wind farm development in the region and will contributed to the national initiative for increased energy creation from renewable resources. The site is located in the Autonomous Province of Vojvodina and will produce 20 MW of electricity. This undertaking begins the initial phase of energy development and will increase rapidly into other areas being considered for expansion." |
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Electricity Trading |
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Notos Power Trading -- trading of electricity |
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In the Financial Projections, this represents the net revenues received from a partnership with a European Power Trading company. The electricity trading market in the Republic of Serbia is estimated at 10 TWh (10,000 GWh). |
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During times of energy requirement for the Republic of Serbia, Notos will source electricity, in conjunction with the European partner, to supply the tender. During times of excess production, Notos will purchase from Serbia and export to Europe. |
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The assumed volume in the Financial Projections, discussed below, is portioned on a 70-30 basis for import-export. The net revenues would be shared on a 50-50 basis with the European partner and Notos’ portion is shown in the financial projections, see below. |
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BUSINESS |
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Green Star Alternative Energy is in the business of producing clean, restorative, and profitable energy from the power of wind. At least 66 countries worldwide now have some type of renewable energy promotion and target policy, including 23 developing countries, all 27 European Union countries, China, and the United States. |
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Last year, the areas of largest annual investment were Europe, China, and the United States. With over 71 billion dollars of new investment and an overall growth rate of 15%, the renewable energy sector is gaining credence among private investors as having the potential to grow into the next big industry. |
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Green Star is prepared to fulfill all compliance issues necessary in progressing to a listing on the NASDAQ Stock Exchange. |
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RECENT DEVELOPMENTS |
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GSAE Signs Letter of Intent to Acquire European Wind Power Company , August 26, 2008 |
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(note: Serbia’s NATO neighbors, Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary are sending out clear signals that they would like to see their neighbor in both EU and NATO …click for more ) |
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GSAE announced the signing of a Letter of Intent with both Notos d.o.o. and Sirius Regulus d.o.o. The LOI outlines the bases for the acquisition of these privately held Serbian companies. |
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" Notos is one of only a few licensed companies permitted to trade electrical power into and out of the Republic of Serbia, and the only entity which will have its own electricity (through Notos Wind Energy) available for trade." |
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" Notos Wind Energy specializes in the creation of electricity from wind energy. With projects currently scheduled for development, Notos is an important participant in the alternative energy sector. The concentrated experience of Notos’ management team and advisory board has allowed Notos significant penetration into a burgeoning and profitable industry. Notos Agri is the agricultural department for Notos. It uses the real estate assets, which house the wind turbines, for the farming of various products from corn, wheat, raspberries, and cattle. Notos Power Trading is the energy trading division for Notos." |
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" Green Star’s management believes this merger to be an ideal step in fulfilling the new corporate strategy. It provides the company with a strong energy development presence in Europe that will lead to rapid expansion in the region. There are three divisions within the Notos framework – Notos Wind Energy, Notos Agri, and Notos Power Trading. This precise system of asset integration affords superior efficiency and greater profitability. Notos is the operations arm while Sirius Regulus is the holder of the land used for the various projects constructed by its sister company Notos." |
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Green Star Represents Serbia's Renewable Energy Sector in Strategic Forum , Sept 4, 2008 |
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Notos (see above) was invited by the Slovenian Ministry of Energy to represent Serbia’s alternative energy sector at the Bled Strategic Forum on "Energy and Climate Change: Si.nergy for the Future" held in Slovenia on August 31st and September 1st. At this key international summit the Green Star and Notos team participated in strategic discussions with high level government representatives, EU officials, private sector leaders, energy industry experts on the challenges of energy security and climate change. |
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" The third annual Bled Strategic Forum addressed soaring oil and gas prices, public concern over growing dependence on imports of energy resources, and the mounting evidence of global warming. The summit was attended by approximately 400 participants from more than 50 countries. Its objective was to bring together world leaders to develop and commit to solutions and stimulate public-private sector cooperation." |
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" The Green Star and Notos team had strategic meetings with key officials including the Prime Ministers of Slovenia, Latvia and the Czech Republic, Minister of Environmental Protection for the Republic of Serbia, Minister of Economy for Slovenia, Deputy State Secretary of Denmark’s Ministry of Climate and Energy and the Minister in Shadow for Energy, Industry and Postal affairs of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. The team also met with high level representatives from Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Columbia University, the Business Advisory Council for South Eastern Europe and the World Renewable Council. " |
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Address : 1660 Hotel Circle North, Suite 207, San Diego, CA 92108
Telephone: 619-497-2555
President: Peter Gilcud – President
Web Site: http://www.greenstarae.com
http://www.notoscleanenergy.com/en/ |
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State or other jurisdiction of incorporation or organization : Nevada
Transfer Agent: Interwest Transfer Co
Investor contact: Jesse De Castro, ir@greenstarae.com
(formerly=R & R Travel, Inc. until 8-2008) |
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EUROPEAN UNION MARKET OPPORTUNITY |
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While wind power currently only contributes up to 4% of Europe’s electricity demand, the EU wants that figure to increase to 12 to 14% by 2020. The European Wind Energy Association, however, has already made predictions for 2030 showing that wind power could provide up to 28% of the EU’s electrical demand. |
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Read more from the European Wind Energy Association |
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IMPORTANT TRENDS |
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. Wind farm economics improve as the price of oil increases |
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ACCORDING THE US U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY (DOE) |
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http://www.energy.gov/news/5091.htm |
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. Wind power has consistently been priced at, or below, the average price of conventional electricity (coal, nuclear, natural gas, etc. ). |
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. Wind project performance, has increased sharply over the last several years. This has been driven in part by improved project siting, and technological advancements. |
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WIND ENERGY MARKET OPPORTUNITY WORLDWIDE |
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Going forward, global installed capacity has increased by approx. 20,000MW in 2007 |
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. Emerging Energy Research expects wind energy to account for approximately 3% of global electricity generation by 2015 from 1.2% currently, with average growth rates for cumulative installations through to 2010 and 2015 of 34.2% and 15.2% per annum respectively. |
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. Similarly, BTM Consult, a leading independent consultancy specializing in renewable energy, forecasts that the wind energy sector will grow at an average rate of 18% annually until 2010 |
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. BTM Consult forecasts that a total of 148,794MW of wind energy capacity will be installed by the end of 2010, an increase of 151% from the 59,264 MW of installed capacity at the end of 2005. |
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According to GSAE |
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" In its best year yet, the global wind industry installed over 20 GW (gigawatts – 109 watts) in 2007, approximately 35 billion dollars of investment. This development was lead by the US, Spain, and China, and it brought the world-wide installed capacity to over 94GW. This is an increase of 31% compared with the 2006 market, and represents an overall increase in global installed capacity of about 27%. Over 70 countries now have wind power. "This is now a business from which it is clearly possible to make a secure and profitable return." GWEC report. |
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" Wind energy is now increasing more than any other power technology in Europe, making up 40% of total new power installations in 2007. Overall US wind power generating capacity grew by 45% in 2007. American wind farms will generate around 48 billion kWh (kilowatthour – 103 watts per hour) of electricity in 2008, just over 1% of U.S. electricity supply, powering the equivalent of over 4.5 million homes. China added 3.4 GW of wind energy capacity during 2007, representing market growth of 156% over 2006, and now ranks fifth in total installed wind energy capacity with over 6 GW at the end of 2007. However, experts estimate that this is just the beginning, and that the real growth in China is yet to come. Based on current growth rates, the Chinese Renewable Energy Industry Association (CREIA) forecasts a capacity of around 50 GW by 2015. |
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" There is an estimated 72 TW (terawatt – 1012 watts) of wind energy on the Earth that potentially can be commercially viable. Only 20% of the available wind energy would be enough to supp ly current worldwide energy needs." |
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NOTOS’ REVENUE SECTORS |
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Discussion: provides assumption foundations for income statement projections, below |
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(1) Notos Wind Energy -- sale of electricity by Notos Wind |
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This category represents the revenue generated by selling the power generated from wind farm projects. The initial electricity production will be purchased on a wholesale basis by the national power company EPS. This contract is legislated by Serbian Energy Law, and provides advantages for alternative energy producers. Upon completion of 10MW of installed capacity, Notos is permitted to sell its electricity to private users within the Republic of Serbia or export to other European countries. This is reflected in the development table (where each turbine represents 1MW) and the average sale price per annum table. EPS will conduct the necessary maintenance in accordance with their requirements |
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The estimated cost of constructing the initial 20MW facility is 20 million euros. This includes all grid connections and substation requirements. This has been used in the assumption of costing the installation of a 1MW turbine at 1 million euros, and extrapolated for further developments. Notos has assumed that the necessary land acquisition for larger developments will be completed by the end of 2008 - at a cost of 4 million euros paid in equal installments over 72 months. |
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(2) Sale of GHG Emission Credits |
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See GHG Competitive Strategies for Electric Utilities |
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This category represents the green house gas emission credits that may be sold to other industrial companies. This process can be accomplished through the European Climate Exchange. The assumption used is an average sale price, until 2013, of 25.85 euros per tonne of reduced CO2. A 1MW turbine reduces emissions by 310.2 tonnes per month. Therefore, based upon the development rate the revenue model is created. |
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(3) Notos Agri -- sale of farmed goods |
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This category represents the revenue generated from the sale of wheat, maize, raspberries, and cattle grazing. Notos has evaluated the financials of a current farming operation. The revenue will come from crop sharing with local farmers who will work the land owned by Notos. All costs of production will be burdened by the farmers with the agriculture mostly being sold within the region. |
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(4) Notos Power Trading -- trading of electricity |
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This represents the net revenues received from a partnership with a European Power Trading company. The electricity trading market in the Republic of Serbia is estimated at 10 TWh (10,000 GWh). During times of energy requirement for the Republic of Serbia, Notos will source electricity, in conjunction with the European partner, to supply the tender. During times of excess production, Notos will purchase from Serbia and export to Europe. The assumed volume is portioned on a 70-30 basis for import-export. The net revenues would be shared on a 50-50 basis with the European partner and Notos’ portion is shown in the financial projections, see below. |
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NOTOS’ GROWTH PLAN |
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According to GSAE, highlights of the Notos division growth plan in Serbia are the following:
1. Currently owns 89 hectares of land proven to be appropriate for wind energy. Evaluations have been conducted on a revenue producing (from farming), 5700 acre parcel of land that is
suitable for wind energy, according to GSAE. |
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2. Various financial institutions within the Republic of Serbia as well as the European Union have expressed a willingness to participate.
3. The development rate was established in conjunction with various equipment manufacturers.
4. The state owned engineering firm in charge of energy facilities has been engaged to construct the projects.
5. The permitting process is underway and nearing completion. |
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GROWTH PLAN RISKS |
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Consider the typical wind farm acquisition & development process in the U.S., for comparison
1. Site and Development Partner Identification and Agreement: land, leases, options
2. Due Diligence Data Collection to Determine Site Suitability:
. collect 3-5 years of site wind data (erection of meteorological towers. which are complicated 160 ft high devices and not cheap.
. Complete a transmission study in cooperation with the utility whose power lines cross the land and whom the intent is to ultimately negotiate a power purchase agreement with
. Complete a turbine siting plan (this is much more of a sophisticated process than most realize...you feed the site wind data you have collected over a period of years into a wind modeling program and it determines the specific turbine model, its location, the blade type and size, etc
3. Complete and Secure Approval of an Environmental Assessment, including a favorable environmental review and to cross any permitting issues with the local counties
4. Enter into Power Purchase Agreements: once the above steps have been completed including having positive the initial feedback on the project at the time of the transmission study, a power purchase agreement (PPA's) must be completed, which are for typically 15-20 years. They are iron-clad agreements from long established utilities that are highly sought by project debt financiers (including the turbine manufacturers themselves
5. Finalize Land Use or Acquisition Terms with Government or Private Land Owner
6. Develop Access Roads to Our Site
7. Complete Interconnection Studies Concerning Connection with Power Grid
8. Complete Construction |
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GSAE/NOTOS FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS Financial Projections |
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In light of the above risks and a recent conference statement by J. M. De Castro, CFO of GSAE, who stated: "Increased use of renewable resources is critical to a sustainable energy future for Europe and the world. Green Star Alternative Energy is committed to developing more than 300 megawatts of clean, homegrown wind power." |
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Financial Projections |
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COMPETITION & BUSINESS MODELS |
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Other emerging wind farm companies have been acquired |
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. This accelerated growth phase which occurs with operational scale can be demonstrated by examining the largely similar outcomes for the first wave of American wind energy developers established in the last decade, including Zilkha Wind, Noble Environmental Power, Sea West Wind, and Community Wind Energy; each of which was acquired by a major investment bank or a large utility. In each instance, the acquisition enabled the wind energy developer to access a scale of capital to fund its planned wind power development and even to accelerate it. |
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Acquirer…………………Target |
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JP Morgan Capital………Noble Environmental Power
Goldman Sachs …………Zilkha Wind
Enel SpA…………………Tradewind Energy
Iberdrola…………………Community Wind Energy & PPM Energy
American Energy Srvcs..SeaWest Wind |
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POTENTIAL VALUATION & MARKET CAPITALIZATION |
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Compare & Contrast |
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Babcock & Brown Wind Partners Australia, BBW. Market cap multiple per installed MW: .36
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Greentech Energy Systems CES.CO. Market cap multiple per installed MW: 2.81
/i/s/ges.co
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Naikun Wind Energy Group Inc. NKW.V. Market cap multiple per installed MW: .25
/i/s/nkw.v
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Renewable Energy Holdings Plc REH.L. Market cap multiple per installed MW: 1.63
/i/s/REH.L
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Western Wind Energy Corp. WNDEF. Market cap multiple per installed MW: 1.36
/i/s/WNDEF.PK
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Wind Energy America Inc. WNEA. Market cap multiple per installed MW: 3.05
/i/s/WNEA.OB
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The average market cap per installed MW is 1.58. Each company has a different debt/equity structure and different expansion plan, so it is difficult to compare apples to apples.
Source: analyst estimates, Reuters Knowledge database |
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POTENTIAL VALUATION & MARKET CAPITALIZATION |
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WIND ONLY |
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Using the WindFarmer financial modeling program as a guide A standard in the industry
http://www.garradhassan.com/products/ghwindfarmer/base.php |
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The valuation range for 80 MW (megawatts) of installed capacity with a PPA (power purchase agreement) approaches $360mm including debt |
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So when finished the 20MW Belo Blato Wind Energy Project could be worth in the range of $80mm, which would also have to include dilution from equity financing as well as incurred debt, based on a comparison using the WindFarmer financial modeling program |
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If GSAE can bring on line the 300MW mentioned above under ‘financial projections’, then the market capitalization could be in the range of $1.2 billion, which would also have to include dilution from equity financing as well as incurred debt. |
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Using the above ‘compare & contrast’ as a guide
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with the computed average market cap per MW of $1.58
The valuation for the 20MW Belo Blato project is in the range of $31.6mm
Then, if GSAE can achieve its goal of 300MW of installed wind energy, the value could be in the range of $474mm |
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USING CORPORATE PROJECTIONS Financial Projections |
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Notice that with all divisions integrated, in the company-supplied financial projects, the projected after-tax profit is in the range of $27million for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2009. |
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A low price/earnings multiple once those numbers are visible would be expected to be in the range of 20, which puts a potential market capitalization on GSAE of $540mm, which is in the range of the average market cap per MW of $474mm, if 300MW of production & sale is visible. |
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RECONCIALATION OF THREE PROJECTED MARKET CAPITALIZATIONS |
WindFarmer model, assuming 300MW the projected market cap
could be in the $1.2 billion range. Assume the equity debt structure is 2/3 debt and 1/3 equity, then the potential GSAE market cap could be in the $400mm range
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Price per megawatt model assuming 300MW
the projected market cap could be in the $474mm range |
Multiple of projected earnings Financial Projections model,
puts the projected market cap in the $540mm range.
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Outstanding shares adjustment
Shares outstanding immediately post-acquisition estimated to be 56mm, so assume that over time there will be 25% dilution putting the total shares outstanding after financing is arranged for the growth plan at 70mm.
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Based on averaging three above valuation models
the potential market cap could be in the range of $471mm
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Because there are risks in implementing GSAE’s growth plan,
it seems reasonable to discount the average projected market cap by 1/3, to arrive at a post-discounted market cap of $315mm
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With an estimate of 70mm adjusted shares outstanding, and a discounted potential market cap of $315mm, then if the assumptions are valid and proven to be true by GSAE & Notos, then the stock could sell in the $4.50 range.
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NOTOS MANAGEMENT |
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Miodrag Andrić, President - founder |
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Mr. Miodrag Andrić is the strategic thinker and visionary leading the Notos d.o.o. Board of Directors. He provides a wealth of international business experience and leads the core management group in a solutions based ap proach to all corporate endeavors. |
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For the past seven years, Miodrag has been involved with the alternative energy sector and his prior position as a Director of Scientific Biofuel Solutions Ltd., gives him insight into the future growth of Notos d.o.o. His professional experience includes: Business Consultant to Maraccot Industries, Bangkok, Thailand; Director of Sales and Marketing for Active Energy, Vancouver, Canada; Consultant to Tidewater Management, Vancouver, Canada. |
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Miodrag is a graduate of the University of Sport Beograd, Serbia. He is fluent in the languages of Serbian, English, French, Italian, German, and Russian.
Contact: Mandric@notoscleanenergy.com |
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Lara Rajičić, Vice president and co-founder |
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Mrs. Lara Rajičić is a talented leader with excepti onal experience in both material and human resources. Her abilities provide the company with a high level of efficiency when implementing the development strategies shaped by our team. Her professional experience includes: Sales Manager for Agroil S.A, Athens; Director for RRK Electronics Ltd, Athens; Financial Director for Seal Commercial S.A., Athens; Director for Sirijus Regulus, Belgrade. A track record of increasing corporate profitability follows this resolute executive. Lara is fluent in Serbian, Greek and English.
Contact: Lrajicic@notoscleanenergy.com |
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Robert Braun, Financial Advisor |
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Mr. Robert Braun currently works as a consultant to Financial Funds which are primarily oriented to Eastern European Investments. He is a graduate of the Goethe University in Frankfurt, Germany. His career began with a position in Deutsche Bank as an analyst for the closed funds sector. He then moved to ARC Financial Consulting in New York, where he spent his initial years in analysis and industrial finance; he has maintained a role in ARC as an independent advisor for their East Europe division.
Contact: Rbraun@notoscleanenergy.com |
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Miloš Zebić, Legal Advisor |
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Mr. Miloš Zebić has an extensive background in banking, stock exchange law, and all forms of corporate law within S erbia and Montenegro. He currently holds the positions of: Chief Legal Advisor to European Construction, Serbia; Chief Legal Advisor to MPC Holding, Serbia; Chief Legal Advisor for Merrill Lynch, Serbia, and Director of JugoPetrol's Foreign Trade Division. |
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His education from the Faculty of Law, Belgrade, includes: Course 9 - European Union Laws, Banking and Stock Market Laws, and International Business Law. Milos is fluent in Serbian, English, and Italian.
Contact: Mzebic@notoscleanenergy.com |
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Predra g Božović, Marketing Director |
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Mr. Predrag Božović is an experienced entrepreneur who has developed his marketing talents while managing the marketing of products for several large retail companies and advertising for many large hotels. Harrods Ltd. of Lond on and the Four Seasons Hotels and Resorts were his latest appointments. |
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He is one of the founders of the Box Group – one of Serbia’s leading companies in marketing and corporate identification. |
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He is a citizen of both Serbia and Britain, and is fluent in English, Serbian, and Greek.
Contact: Pbozovic@notoscleanenergy.com |
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Ivan Radosavljević, IT Director |
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Mr. Ivan Radosavljević is a member of the IAWMD, International Association of Web Masters and Designers, based in Wellington, USA. |
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He is an award winning designer whose abilities have been utilized by the likes of Giorgio Armani to the TOYOTA Serbia. |
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He is the founder of OKberza, the first advertising portal in Serbia, and the co-founder of the Box Group. He is fluent in Serbian, English, and Italian. |
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IPOdesktop (ID) SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Statements contained in this document, including those pertaining to estimates and related plans, potential mergers and acquisitions, estimates, growth, establishing new markets, expansion into new markets and related plans other than statements of historical fact, are forward-looking statements subject to a number of uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from statements made. ID provides no assurance as to the subject company's plans or ability to effect any planned and/or proposed actions. ID has no first-hand knowledge of management and therefore cannot comment on its capabilities, intent, resources, nor experience and makes no attempt to do so. Statistical information, dollar amounts, and market size data was provided by the subject company or its agent and related sources believed by ID to be reliable, but ID provides no assurance, and none is given, as to the accuracy and completeness of this information. |
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DISCLAIMER: The information, opinions and analysis contained herein are based on sources believed to be reliable but no representation, expressed or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This report is a paid advertisement and is for information purposes only and should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. ID has been compensated up eighty five hundred dollars from EquityAlllianceIR for preparation and posting of this report and other advertising services. This constitutes a conflict of interest as to ID’s ability to remain objective in its communication regarding the subject company. Analysts, principals, associates and employees of ID do not own or trade equities under coverage. For detailed disclosure as required by Rule 17b of the Securities Act of 1933/1934 contact IPOdesktop, 11693 San Vicente Blvd., #350, Los Angeles, CA 90049. ID is not an investment advisor and this report is not investment advice. This information is neither a solicitation to buy nor an offer to sell securities but is a paid advertisement. Information contained herein contains forward-looking statements and is subject to significant risks and uncertainties, which will affect the results. The opinions contained herein reflect our current judgment and are subject to change without notice. We encourage our readers to invest carefully and read the investor information available at the web sites of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) at http://www.sec.gov and the National Association of Securities Dealers (NASD) at http://www.nasd.com. The NASD has published information on how to invest carefully at its web site. Readers can review all public filings by companies at the SEC's EDGAR page. |